Peyton Manning is on pace to break the single-season records for touchdown passes and passing yards this year (2013). Here’s a quick (and dirty?) look at Peyton Manning’s 2013 stats compared to those of other QBs after 12 games in their own record-setting seasons. I’ll probably post updates to this after each of the next 4 games as Manning inches closer to these achievements. As always with this football statistics stuff, I never claim expertise, I just do it for fun.
|Quarterback (12 games played)||cmp||att||cmp%||Yds||TD||INT||rate||record|
|Peyton Manning (2013)||327||480||68.1||4125||41||9||115.3||10-2|
|Drew Brees (2011)||349||496||70.4||4031||30||11||105.5||9-3|
|Aaron Rodgers (2011)*||288||408||70.6||3844||37||5||125.3||12-0|
|Tom Brady (2007)||302||430||70.2||3696||41||5||123.4||12-0|
|Peyton Manning (2004)*||262||385||68.1||3621||44||9||126.3||9-3|
|Dan Marino (1984)**||256||395||64.8||3678||32||12||109.2||11-1|
*This won’t be particularly important until we come to the end of the season, but Rodgers sat out the entire 16th game of the 2011 season and Manning played just one series of the 2004 finale, going 1/2 for 6 yards, no TDs. Manning played 3 quarters of the final game of 2012, despite clinching the #1 seed prior to kickoff, so he may see action in game 16 regardless of the Broncos’ playoff position.
**Marino is always going to be kind of an outlier here, because he set the single season record for TDs and passing yards before the NFL started calling more illegal contact penalties in 2004. Also, this was just his second year in the NFL and his only Super Bowl appearance.
Manning is behind someone else in every category except yards, so his ability to pass any/all of these records is still uncertain. His team obviously won’t go 16-0. It will be tough for him to best Brees’ 2011 completions record (468) and cmp% record (71.2), or Aaron Rodgers’ 2011 passer rating record (122.5). He certainly won’t beat Matthew Stafford’s 2012 pass attempts record (727). Still, the highest profile record is probably TDs, and at this point, he’s behind only himself from 2004.
Manning’s final four games are against teams that are a combined 16-32, which would seem to bode well for him.Two of the opponents, however, are still realistically in the Wild Card hunt (Tennessee and San Diego, both 5-7). Manning has a habit of finishing fairly strong in recent years. In each of his last six seasons, he’s averaged 8 or 9 TDs and 1005 yards over the past four games. Notably, during that stretch he sat out 10+ quarters in “meaningless” finales, or more than 2.5 whole games. His 2013 pace says he’ll finish with 13 TDs and 1375 yards over the final four games.
All that said, who knows what might happen? I’ll try to keep an eye on things.
As usual, most everything above was calculated using numbers found at Pro-Football-Reference.
Also, check out this article on the greatest QB Seasons, because I did.