Peyton Manning’s 2013 Records Chase (after 13 games)

Peyton Manning is on pace to break the single-season records for touchdown passes and passing yards this year (2013). Let’s take a look at Peyton Manning’s 2013 stats compared to those of other QBs after 13 games in their own record-setting seasons. I’ll probably post updates to this after each of the next 3 games as Manning inches closer to these achievements. As always with this football statistics stuff, I never claim expertise, I just do it for fun. I’ve tried to freshen this up a bit, but I held over some stuff from last week’s look.

Quarterback (13 games played)	cmp	att	cmp%	Yds	TD	INT	rate	record
Peyton Manning (2013)	366	539	67.9	4522	45	9	114.5	11-2
Drew Brees (2011)	385	543	70.9	4368	32	11	105.9	10-3
Aaron Rodgers (2011)*	305	438	69.6	4125	39	6	123.3	13-0
Tom Brady (2007)	334	476	70.2	4095	45	5	123.5	13-0
Peyton Manning (2004)*	288	418	68.9	3919	46	9	126.3	10-3
Dan Marino (1984)**	275	426	64.6	3870	36	12	110.2	12-1

*Rodgers sat out the entire 16th game of the 2011 season and Manning played just one series of the 2004 finale, going 1/2 for 6 yards, no TDs. Also, Rodgers threw his final INT of the 2011 season in game 13.

**Marino set the single season record for TDs and passing yards before the NFL started calling more illegal contact penalties in 2004.

Like last week Manning is still behind someone else in every category except yards, so his ability to pass any/all of these records remains uncertain. His team obviously won’t go 16-0. It will be tough for him to best Brees’ 2011 completions record (468) and cmp% record (71.2), or Aaron Rodgers’ 2011 passer rating record (122.5). He certainly won’t beat Matthew Stafford’s 2012 pass attempts record (727). Still, the highest profile record is probably TDs, and at this point, he’s behind only himself from 2004.

Manning’s final three games are against teams that are a combined 12-27. Two opponents, San Diego (6-7) on Thursday and Oakland (4-9) in the season finale, are still technically in playoff contention. The third, Houston (2-11) is done for. Also, Denver plays it’s last two games away in Houston (indoors) and then Oakland, so weather conditions for breaking records should be more ideal than Denver. Of course, Peyton’s supposed cold weather struggles are actually playoff struggles (or New England struggles), so realistically, the climate shouldn’t matter.

San Diego’s pass defense is #28 for yards allowed. Houston is surprisingly #2 and Oakland is #23. Of course, Tennessee is #11, and Manning threw for almost 400 yards and 4 TDs against them on Sunday, so who knows what might happen in the weeks ahead.

I fully expect Peyton to break at least the TD record and maybe the yardage record. I hope it happens in week 15 in Houston on the off chance Denver clinches the #1 seed that week and opts to rest Peyton a bit. That said, I can’t imagine them resting him for more than a quarter (if at all) considering how historic this season has been so far. Also, considering the way the Patriots have been playing, Denver might just have to win out to ensure home field advantage.

Actually, I really hope that the NFL decides to flex the week 17 Broncos-Raiders game into the Sunday Night slot and the records wait until that night to get broken. BUT, there are at least 3 games that are potentially more intriguing than what could be a 13-2 team vs. a 4-11 or 5-10 team: BAL/CIN, PHI/DAL, GB/CHI or even NYJ/MIA, so I won’t hold my breath for that.

Manning’s 2013 pace says he’ll finish with 10 TDs and 1043 yards over the final three games.

As usual, most everything above was calculated using numbers found at Pro-Football-Reference.