Peyton Manning’s 2013 Records Chase (after 15 games)

Peyton Manning did it. He broke the single season record for TD passes (even if one wasn’t a complete pass), and he did it in game 15 (just like in 2004). He’s still on pace to break the single-season records for passing yards and he might just add 3-4 more TDs to his total. Let’s take a look at Peyton Manning’s 2013 stats compared to those of other QBs after 15 games in their own record-setting seasons. I’ll probably post a season post-mortem update to this after next week’s game. As always with this football statistics stuff, I never claim expertise, I just do it for fun. Along with whatever’s new,  there’s still some stuff here from last week’s look. Continue reading

4000+ Yard Passers

Did you know…

Before the league switched to a 16-game season in 1978, only one NFL quarterback threw for over 4000 yards in a season?

Joe Namath threw 4007 in 1967.

In the 1980s there were thirteen 4000+ yard seasons (Dan Fouts also threw for 4082 in 1979). Plus, Dan Marino broke 5000 yards in 1984.

In the 1990s there were 20.

In the 2000s there were 46.

The 2010s (so far) have 33. If Ryan (needing 119 yards in 2 games), Palmer (133), Romo (172), Flacco (280) and Tannehill (291) hit their marks, that’s 38, including five 5,000+ yard performances (6 if Brees manages 219 next week). That projects to ninety-five 4000+ yard performances in the 2010s.

Roughly doubling every decade since the 1980s, that means 190 in the 2020s, or, 19 quarterbacks throwing for 4000+ yards every season. In 2013, only 19 QBs have started every game for their team.

I don’t expect things to get as crazy as my fuzzy math predicts. However, considering the continued safety concerns in the league, it might not be so far-fetched.

(here’s the Pro-Football-Reference list of single season passing yardage leaders)